The transition back to winter occurs Monday

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WEST MICHIGAN — Make sure to enjoy the mild temperatures on Sunday and early Monday. Most readings will top out in the 50s with a major meltdown taking place.

Rain will increase in intensity by Sunday evening/night as a strong developing area of low pressure tracks north in to Michigan and brings a swath of Gulf moisture with it. One to two inches of rain is possible from this system by Monday morning. Couple that with the snowpack on the ground and we could see some urban flooding with standing/ponding of water in streets and parking lots. While area rivers may swell and run high, river flooding is not expected to become a major issue.

The good news with this event is that nothing will freeze on the roadways until Monday evening. Rain will mix with and change to snow Monday afternoon/evening and conditions will turn very windy by Monday afternoon. Expect south/southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph with much higher gusts. Temperatures will fall throughout the day from early morning highs in the upper 40s to near 50.

Accumulating snow is likely Monday night and through about mid-day to mid-afternoon Tuesday. Both lake-effect and lake-enhancement will generate about 3″ to 6″ by Tuesday from Grand Rapids to the north/west, and much lighter amounts to the south/east.

The image attached to this story is from our computer forecast model we call FutureTrack HD. It’s valid for 6 AM Monday morning and shows the powerful low pressure system over Michigan, the abundance of liquid precipitation (in green), and the isobars (lines of constant or equal pressure/the thin gray lines) packed tightly together creating windy conditions across the region. While the image doesn’t show much snow behind this system with the warm temperatures still in place Monday morning, the changeover from rain to snow will occur in the P.M. hours.

Highs on Tuesday will only make the low 30s at best and there’s nothing in the next seven days above the upper 30s at this point. Get the complete West Michigan forecast at

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