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Comparing weather models to forecast the weekend’s snow totals

Posted at 8:12 AM, Jan 09, 2016
and last updated 2016-01-09 08:21:07-05

WEST MICHIGAN– Rain will turn to snow by Saturday night as a strong winter storm moves through Michigan. When it comes to forecasting snow totals for any storm, meteorologists turn to computer models.

But what is a weather model? It’s a computer program, a list of instructions that tell the computer what to do. The program pulls in current weather observations like temperature and then, through a series of complex equations, formulates a prediction of what the weather will do.

Some models like the GFS and NAM are run four times a day, others just twice.

The models vary because each one computes data a little differently. The shots below are from Saturday morning’s model runs. Each model is estimating how much snow Michigan will see through Sunday evening.

The gist… the models are in agreement that West Michigan will see between four and eight inches of snowfall this weekend.

NAM Snow

GFS Snow

RPM Snow