WEST MICHIGAN -- A developing area of low pressure tracking in to the Great Lakes on Wednesday will be the focal point for the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. The primary threat would be damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out due to the nature and direction of the wind field. See the location of this storm system below. The image below is our forecast model valid for 6 A.M. Wednesday morning.
Here's the location of the storm system below at 6 P.M. on Wednesday evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has all of southwest Lower Michigan in a MARGINAL Risk of severe weather, but just south/west of Grand Rapids through Allegan, Barry, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Berrien, Cass, and St. Joseph Counties, a SLIGHT Risk exists. A marginal threat is our lowest threat, and a slight threat is just one up from that. So...not a great chance, but a little better south/west of Grand Rapids in the slight risk.
The time of greatest threat would be from late afternoon through most of the evening hours. The threat may be enhanced if we can hang on to sunshine longer through the day as that has the tendency to add heat and energy and destabilize the atmosphere even more. Similar to last week, these storms would likely be on the cusp of severe criteria. Recall that the National Weather Service will issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning if a storm is capable of producing 58 mph winds or greater and/or one inch size hail or larger. Note the location of the system is completely through our area by 6 A.M. Thursday morning below.
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