WEST MICHIGAN- It's not too often that tropical and West Michigan go in the same sentence (at least that's what we would feel like in the wintertime.) It's actually a much more common occurrence than it seems. No, hurricanes and tropical storms do not make landfall in Michigan, but moisture and the disturbances that were associated with them at one time often bring us heavy rain and thunderstorms as they move away from the ocean.
Subtropical depression Alberto has now made landfall. Look at all the rain that's attached to this system, even at this hour. Showers and thunderstorms are as far north as Cincinnati and that same line will spark a few afternoon thunderstorms by this afternoon.
It's Wednesday into Thursday that we're expecting the main system to arrive. This will bring periods of very heavy rainfall to the entire region. I would peg Wednesday as our best day for stronger thunderstorms because the center of circulation of this disturbance will be closest to us. Portions of our area are under a marginal risk for severe weather, but I would just expect a few stronger storms to develop.
Because of the duration of this event, and the amount of tropical moisture, I would expect that heavy rain is one of the biggest threats over the next few days. Despite what this run of Future Track suggests, pay attention to the numbers on the higher end. Between 1-2" are possible by early Friday morning. Flooding issues could be a possibility, so we'll need to monitor these periods of heavy rain specifically.
