WEST MICHIGAN -- There are plenty of us waiting and wanting rain across West Michigan, but as the saying goes...."be careful what you wish for." With all the moisture in the atmosphere and a strong cold front sliding in to the state on Monday, the chance remains for very heavy rain and a flash flooding threat. While that may sound appealing to some, two/three/four inches of rain in a matter of an hour or less could be detrimental with thunderstorms over the same area. That said, there may very well be some locations that see little rain or get missed all together.
Here's what our forecast model looks like below at 9:00 P.M. on Monday.
We'll have the chance for some shower and thunderstorm activity Monday morning, but the better chance of more widespread storms and possible severe weather arrives in the afternoon and evening. By late Monday evening and Monday night that threat has passed.
Take a look at the Storm Prediction Center outlook for Monday. All of West Michigan is in a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather as the strong cold front arrives. We have plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, lift from an arriving cold front, and heat/energy building from some breaks of sunshine...so the ingredients are certainly in place!
Below is a look at the severe weather threats I would expect with this system and this environment. Lightning and flash flooding rains are possible, but from a severe perspective, strong, damaging straight line wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph will be possible as well. To a lesser degree, large hail around an inch in size, and an isolated spin-up of a brief tornado can't be ruled out.
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