West Michigan’s first frost could come later this week

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WEST MICHIGAN — As the rule of thumb goes for West Michigan, our first frost generally occurs between October 1 and the 10th. This season, we may not be far off at all. Many of us can hardly wait for a widespread, hard frost to kill off all/most of the mosquitos, but the apple season is still going strong. I’m told by growers on “the ridge” it’s another year of a bumper crop!

That said, this week will be a true roller-coaster ride with temperatures. Remember the 83 degrees we had last week? As we’ve been forecasting, that heat will return Monday, Tuesday, and partially Wednesday this week before the cold, Canadian, fall air blasts in by Thursday and Friday. In fact, Thursday night into Friday morning, and especially Friday night into Saturday morning may yield the area’s first real, widespread frost. We’re forecasting temperatures on those mornings in the upper 30s to around 40. Take a look at the temperatures from one of our forecast models below. Simply put, the warmer colors of yellow and orange can be seen over Michigan on the map below Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday will be our best chance at breaking the high temperature record of 82 set back in 2011.

Next…look at the same map below from the same forecast model valid for Friday morning. See the sharply colder tones/colors over Michigan? It’s what we call cold air advection. Cold air filtering in from the north!

Keep in mind Indian Summer doesn’t start until AFTER the first frost, so technically, we haven’t experienced it yet. High temperatures by the end of the week may be hard pressed to exit the 40s, and likely will not get out of the low 50s! Change is coming and sharply colder air is on the way. Are you ready?

Make sure to stay up on later forecasts at www.fox17online.com/weather.

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