Thick, heavy, wet, accumulating snow and wind dominates morning commute

WEST MICHIGAN -- If you're just returning from a few days away for the Thanksgiving weekend...you may not have heard...a thick, heavy, wet, high-moisture content snow will unfold overnight into Monday morning. Winds will ramp up, temperatures will drop, and school delays/cancellations are likely along with scattered power outages.

Not that it matters, but this is NOT lake effect snow. This snow is coming from a low pressure area/system that recently formed over the southern Rockies. Our forecast models have been all over the place with snowfall totals the last few days, just because they were trying to get a handle on the storm (literally) before it formed. Now that it continues to develop/unfold, its current track is expected to move it into northern Ohio by Monday. Since Michigan is in the colder air north/west of this system, it places much of our area in a primary location for a sizeable snow event.

Take a look at the location of this system below. The map is valid for 6 A.M. Monday morning.

Snow will develop and become heavy at times through the night and into the Monday morning commute. In fact, I have been monitoring and witnessing convective snow south/west of Chicago (that's snow with thunder and lightning in it). Some states have already reported 4" to 7" and they've still got more to go! Typically when we see convective snow, that can easily translate to 1" to 2" of snow per hour. I would expect at least the possibility of up to one inch snowfall rates per hour here in West Michigan given the history of this system and the awesome upward vertical lift associated with it.

Below is map number two valid for 6 P.M. Monday. The snow is expected to taper off Monday afternoon.

The entire FOX 17 viewing audience is under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 P.M. Sunday through 1 P.M. Monday. A solid swath of 4" to 8" is likely across a majority of the area. See advisory map below.

Our warmest temperatures will occur overnight in the mid/upper 30s, then fall to around 30 and remain steady the rest of the day. Wind chills, with a strong northeast to north wind at 15 to 25 mph will generate wind chills in the teens. The lightest amounts of snow will fall across Oceana and northern Newaygo County, and along the Michigan-Indiana state-line...about 1" to 3" in those locations. See map below.

It's possible the exact track of this winter storm may shift a bit north or south, but the last several computer forecast model runs have been moving it further south. Our map indicates the most likely scenario of snow totals based on its current trajectory. Make sure to utilize a snow blower if you can due to the heavy nature and thickness of the snow!

Behind this system Monday night, Tuesday, and early Wednesday, accumulating lake-effect snow is likely...especially along/west of U.S. 131. Make sure to stay up on later forecasts! Get radar, temperatures, wind chills, and more forecast information at www.fox17online.com/weather. Now would also be a great time to download our free FOX 17 weather APP on your smartphone. Allow plenty of extra time Monday morning and be ready to deal with a mess on the roadways. Don't forget, we'll have weather updates and news starting Monday morning at 4:30 A.M. Please be safe!

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