GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. — Up or down, it can't be both.
Recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau suggests Grand Rapids' population has been in decline, though city officials say their data proves otherwise. "That's not what my eyes are seeing," said City Manager Mark Washington.
From 2020 to 2022, the American Community Survey (ACS) estimates Michigan's second-largest city lost nearly 2,000 people from its total population, a number determined from a questionnaire annually sent to 3.5 million addresses nationwide, per the Census Bureau.
"I don't know if I would necessarily agree," Washington said in a Wednesday interview with FOX 17. "What I see is a growing community, a growing metropolitan area to include a growing urban core."
For him, the proof is in the housing data.
Since 2020, the Grand Rapids assessor's office has documented a two-percent increase in the total number of housing units in the city. From 2020 to 2023, it noted a near one-percent increase in the total number of single-family homes.
"I do know the demand for people moving into our area, specifically in Grand Rapids, is very high," Washington said.
The city manager also pointed out that population statistics from the ACS are calculated with a 90-percent confidence level, which could account for the estimated decline.
"The actual data that we have gives me a different appreciation for the trajectory of our community," Washington said.
The Population Estimates Program (PEP), though, backs the ACS with newer data.
From 2020 to 2023, the program says Grand Rapids lost around 2,000 people from its total population, about a one-percent decline.
Rather than survey data, the PEP draws from housing and administrative numbers, meaning statistical confidence intervals "are not needed," according a presentation from the Census Bureau.
Read more about the differences between the American Community Survey (ACS) and Population Estimates Program (PEP) here.
The same four-year data set also estimates the total population of Kent County grew by 3,380 people.
"What affects one city affects the other," Washington said. "I think that's the beauty of Kent County: there's so much interconnectedness."
Regardless of discrepancies between the Census Bureau and the city, population growth is a priority in Grand Rapids. As Washington watches an amphitheater and apartments go up, he hopes clarity will come in 2030.
"I think I'm looking forward to the next census count," he said. "But in the interim, I'm trusting with what my eyes are telling me."
