GRAND RAPIDS — This week we saw the first snowflakes fly as a sign of things to come. It's the time of year we start hearing things about El Nino and La Nina ocean patterns that can cause changes to temperature and can even impact the Christmas tree harvest.
“This winter, it appears we have a moderate to strong El Nino event brewing in the tropical pacific and so that's going to cause a disruption of the weather and climate worldwide, said Dr. Zach Johnson,” CMU professor of Meteorology.
An El Nino winter brewing leads to warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical pacific. Central Michigan University meteorology professor Dr. Zach Johnson says it's like steam coming off a large pot of boiling water as the warmer temperatures effect weather patterns like our jet streams.
“We'll have a ridge of high pressure dominating our pattern. So that's going to reduce the amount of storms to reduce it will reduce the amount of snow and it will have it will cause milder conditions over here in Michigan,” said Johnson.
It can hint at fewer storms, giving less snow overall, and more mild temperatures this winter. These El Nino and La Nina patterns oscillate on a 3 to 7 year cycle….but as our overall climate changes we may start to see bigger swings.
“The climate change effect on our winter pattern, we could see that we see less ice coverage over the great lakes, we see the snowpack going further north, year after year,” said Johnson.
“When you add those effects together, it's potentially possible we'll have even a more mild winter than your standard El Nino event,” said Johnson.
Changes in our winter seasons play a big role in many industries whether it be ski resorts, snow plowing and even Christmas tree farms. Tom Hart, the owner of Hart tree farm in Rockford says they actually don't mind the milder temperatures.
Tom hart – owner of hart tree farm
“The winters don't seem as harsh as they were warmer winter so actually I think that's beneficial for Christmas tree grower,” said Tom Hart, owner of Hart tree farm.
It takes about 10 years to grow a 6–8-foot tree as they go through numerous winter seasons the trees can handle a lot.
“If we get real cold winters we can get some southwest they call winter burn on the tree this from the winds prevailing wind from the south to dehydration of the needle and primer primarily that john Douglas fir,” said Hart.
There are a few concerns about heavy snow in the winter with snowpack weighing down and damaging branches, but there are other weather worries.
“Biggest concern would be late frost damage after the trees start to bud out. They call it flushing out when the trees flush out and we get a late frost it'll burn some of that new growth off,” said Hart.
What's important here whether it's El Nino or La Nina snow and cold is still on the way.
“That doesn't mean we're not going to have snow, we could easily still have a major snow event from Michigan, we can easily have cold snaps. I think an El Nino will favor less of those sorts of events,” said Johnson.
Less snow and warmer temperatures but still winter will show up and many industries will pivot including tree farmers.
Michigan ranks third among all 50 states for Christmas tree production supplying approximately 3 million fresh Christmas trees a year.
