The estimated cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people will be 20% higher than a year ago, according to an analysis released Wednesday by the American Farm Bureau Federation.
The AFBF’s analysis looks at the cost of Thanksgiving staples, such as turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls with butter, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, pumpkin pie with whipped cream, and coffee and milk.
The AFBF said providing enough food for 10 people with plenty of leftovers would cost $64.05 this year, up from $53.31 a year ago and $46.90 from 2020.
Nearly every Thanksgiving staple is over 10 percent more expensive than a year ago. The largest increase was for the price of stuffing mix, which saw a 69% increase. The cost of turkey increased 21% in the last year.
The only Thanksgiving staple that did not have a price increase from last year was cranberries, which saw a 14% decline.
While Thanksgiving dinners will be 20% more expensive than a year ago, average wages have only increased 4.7% in the last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“General inflation slashing the purchasing power of consumers is a significant factor contributing to the increase in average cost of this year’s Thanksgiving dinner,” said AFBF chief economist Roger Cryan. "General inflation has been running 7% to 9% in recent months, while the most recent Consumer Price Index report for food consumed at home reveals a 12% increase over the past year.”
Farm Bureau Lead Economist Loren Koeman says inflation plays a role, as does the war in Ukraine and its effect on grain and feed prices.
“The turkey flock hasn't grown quite as much,” Koeman explains. “Farmers are reluctant to put on more turkeys with higher feed costs.”
Koeman adds this year’s bird flu outbreak further contributed to the price increase. Despite that, a turkey shortage is not expected.
“There may be just a little more difficulty, maybe regionally and getting a certain-size bird,” says Koeman. “But we don't expect any widespread shortages of turkey.“
Here are the average prices of items, according to the Farm Bureau:
- 16-pound turkey: $28.96 or $1.81 per pound (up 21%)
- 14-ounce bag of cubed stuffing mix: $3.88 (up 69%)
- 2 frozen pie crusts: $3.68 (up 26%)
- Half pint of whipping cream: $2.24 (up 26%)
- 1 pound of frozen peas: $1.90 (up 23%)
- 1 dozen dinner rolls: $3.73 (up 22%)
- Misc. ingredients to prepare the meal: $4.13 (up 20%)
- 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.28 (up 18%)
- 1 gallon of whole milk: $3.84 (up 16%)
- 3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $3.96 (up 11%)
- 1-pound veggie tray (carrots & celery): 88 cents (up 8%)
- 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.57 (down 14%)
The AFBF uses data from volunteer shoppers in all 50 states and Puerto Rico.
The data found those in the West will likely pay more for their meals than those in the South. The Western U.S. would expect to pay $71.37 while those in the South would pay $58.42 for the same 10-person meal.
Here is a year-by-year breakdown of how much the same Thanksgiving meal has cost since 2015:
2015: $50.11
2016: $49.87
2017: $49.12
2018: $48.90
2019: $48.91
2020: $46.90
2021: $53.31
2022: $64.05
To cut down on costs this year, Koeman recommends taking the time to compare prices at different stores before purchasing a turkey. He says retailers may offer lower prices to draw shoppers in.
For those who may struggle with this year’s price increase, the Farm Bureau says it is doing what it can to ensure no one is hungry this Thanksgiving.
“We've provided over 600,000 meals into Michigan,” says Koeman. “And we're really doubling down our work with food banks to try to make sure that, you know, the abundance of Michigan food we have gets us as efficiently into those food banks as we can.”
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