WEST MICHIGAN — The Storm Prediction Center has placed West Michigan under a MARGINAL or "level 1" risk for severe storms on Saturday. The main threats include damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and quarter-sized hail. The SPC has issued the following statement regarding the storm potential:
..Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes...
A pronounced shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east towards the upper Great Lakes/Midwest on Saturday, accompanied by stronger low/mid-level wind fields and a zone of large-scale ascent. A surface cold front will move east in tandem with the shortwave trough and a warm front will lift north into southern MN/WI during the day. A very moist low-level air mass will be in place in advance of the front beneath the eastern periphery of an EML, contributing to moderate-strong MLCAPE developing by afternoon. Low-level warm/moist advection Saturday morning may contribute to lingering morning clouds/storms across western portions of the risk area, along with substantial cloud cover that could impact the degree of subsequent destabilization.
Despite these concerns, isolated supercell storms should develop across western/central MN with risk for very large hail given effective shear in excess of 50 kts and steep mid-level lapse rates. Upscale growth into a linear MCS is likely towards evening with damaging winds becoming the primary severe threat ... More isolated severe storms will be possible farther south into northern/western IA and eastern NE Saturday afternoon/evening along the cold front. Moderate-strong MLCAPE, 35-50 kts of effective shear, and a deep mixed layer should support a risk for damaging winds and severe hail.
West Michigan has a lower level threat compared to other parts of the mid-west, including Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Stay tuned with the FOX 17 Weather Team for updates.
