WEST MICHIGAN — Living downwind from Lake Michigan has both advantages and disadvantages from a weather perspective, and like many other things in our world, there is a science behind it.
Science 101 tells us water has a high specific heat capacity. Simply put: It takes a long time to heat up and cool down. That means it also has the capability to alter or even control our weather. There are several ways Lake Michigan can impact our West Michigan weather.
We’ll start with the most obvious...Lake effect snow. Cold air pouring over the relatively warmer waters can produce lake effect snow. This is most common in the fall and early winter when the temperature difference is the greatest. This same temperature difference can also produce cold air funnels that typically occur in the fall.
In the spring when the lake is still cold, air flowing over the water can have a stabilizing effect. That means inland locations can see cloud formation, but those areas directly downwind from the lake will see sunny skies.
This colder, marine-modified air will not rise...It sinks...creating a lake shadow effect.
This has the opposite effect in the fall and early winter when the water is warm, and adds moisture to the air, thereby creating lake effect cloud cover and, in some cases, precipitation downwind of the lake.
Since it takes a long time for water to warm, storms coming across the lake in the early summer can be weakened by the cooler Lake Michigan water.
Again, this has the opposite effect in the late summer and early fall when water temperatures can approach 70 or better.
That warmth can add moisture and instability to the storms and fuel their intensity but there are exceptions. If the storms formed well above the surface, what meteorologists call elevated, modification by the water is unlikely. If the storms are surface-based, it becomes increasingly likely the storms will either weaken or intensify based on the time of year and water temperature.
Lake Michigan can also initiate storms by generating a lake breeze or convergence zone. A breeze blowing inland off the lake can collide with an easterly wind over the land. That gives way to rising air motion and can initiate rain showers or thunderstorms. The image below from the Chicago radar site shows a lake breeze pushing inland (from the east).
Of course, Lake Michigan tends to keep locations downwind quite a bit cooler in the spring and early summer, as air flows off the colder lake. But it also keeps those same locations significantly warmer well into the fall and early winter as lake temperatures are typically warmer than air temperatures.
On another note, if you're wondering what type of summer we'll have, climatologists and meteorologists from NOAA and the National Weather Service put out their long-range forecast for June, July, and August. There is a 62% chance of an El Nino developing, where warmer waters exist over the equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean.
This warmer water moves east along the equator and can force upper-level pattern changes in our jet stream that can alter, change, and impact the weather system across the United States. That said, below is the temperature and precipitation outlook for the summer months.
In short, it shows the chance of slightly above normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation. It may change, but this is what the longer-range climate is leaning towards. We had 110 inches of snow this past year...way above normal., so we'll see how our summer shakes out. Get your complete West Michigan forecast at www.fox17online.com/weather.
