On April 4, 2023, a severe storm from Illinois tracked over Lake Michigan and weakened over the cooler waters.
But after moving over warmer land in Allegan County, it produced hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter from Hopkins all the way to Lake Odessa.
This system was early enough in the spring season for the cooler Lake Michigan waters to weaken the system for a time, but historical trends say that won’t be the case this year.
Take a look at this map – which shows ice coverage over Lake Michigan for the last year compared to the average.
Except for a few days in November – we were below average – meaning less ice and warmer lake temps.
Taking the 5-season average of the highest ice coverage from 1989 to 1993 and the lowest ice coverage from 2003 to 2007, we can draw a pretty strong conclusion less ice coverage leads to more severe weather.
Average ice coverage was 20.33% with a max at 64.4% in the highest 5-season average. Ice coverage concentration averaged 13.44% with a max at 55.20% over the lowest 5-season average.
There were 5 times as many severe thunderstorm warnings issued the springs and summers following 03-07 winters compared to the warnings issued with more ice coverage from 1989-93.
More severe storms mean more wind, hail and tornado events, which damage homes, cars and businesses in our community.
Adjusted for inflation -- 1989 to 1993 averaged $600K a year in storm damages. While 2003 to 2007 averaged $19.92 million a year! Compare this to the 1956 tornado outbreak Season, which accumulated $140 million in damage, adjusting for inflation.
This past winter only averaged 9.4% ice coverage with a peak of 21.51%.
Through April 21 -- 13 severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued.
We have a long way to go in the season, but early indications show warmer-than-average lake temperatures which can lead to stronger thunderstorms here in West Michigan.
