WEST MICHIGAN — As West Michigan cleans up from Sunday's severe weather outbreak, another round of violent weather is already on the horizon.
The Storm Prediction Center has included much of the Lower Peninsula in the RISK AREAfor severe storms Wednesday.
Areas from I-96 to the south are under an ENHANCED RISK (Level 3 out of 5, orange area) for severe weather. While all severe weather hazards are possible, damaging straight line winds are the primary threat. Similar to Sunday's weather, brief tornadoes are possible along with hail larger than quarter size, but are secondary threats. Still, be prepared to need to take shelter if a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued!
Much of the rest of Lower Michigan is under a SLIGHT RISK (Level 2 out of 5, yellow area). Severe storms, primarily damaging winds, will be possible throughout all of Michigan, but the better environment for storms is south of I-96.
Much of the country from the Upper Midwest to the Deep South and Ohio Valley, are in the risk area for potential severe storms. The mid and lower-Mississippi Valleys were upgraded to a rare MODERATE RISK (Level 4 out of 5) as the environment looks to support widespread severe weather potential.
West Michigan has remained relatively unchanged in the Enhanced Risk area since Sunday, increasing confidence in the forecast.
TIMELINE AND THREATS
Arriving early morning (3am-6am): WINTRY MIX (mostly light rain/snow...but there is an outside chance for a period of Freezing Rain). Up to 2" of snow possible and a glaze of ice for Oceana, Newaygo, Mecosta and Oceana counties where there is a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 a.m. to noon Wednesday.
Arriving 7-8am: 1st round of thunderstorms. These will not be severe, but will contain torrential downpours, lightning and small hail (pea size or smaller).
Mid-late morning: Break from the Precipitation (Graphic Below)
Early Afternoon: Scattered Rain Showers (Graphic Below)
Mid-Late Evening: Strong Storms Arriving .... Lasting through Midnight (Graphics Below)
Damaging winds will be the primary threat with any storms Wednesday, but the spin-up tornado threat has increased slightly.
THREATS
- Very Heavy Rainfall (Most areas pick up 1-2 inches of rain...some locations will pick up as much as 3-3.5 inches of rain)
- Flooding is a strong likelihood
- Strong damaging winds
- Hail
• • Isolated Tornadoes
There is some uncertainty with this forecast. How far north the warm front pushes will determine where the warm and humid air will be. If the front stays further south, the severe weather threat will lessen. If the warm front surges north into northern Michigan very quickly, our severe weather threat will increase. Stay tuned for tweaks in the forecast!
For the latest details on the weather in West Michigan, head to the FOX 17 Weather page.
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