The first snowflakes of the season are likely to fall by the end of the week. What will the upcoming Winter season have in store for West Michigan?
Projecting the likely conditions of the upcoming winter season begins by taking a look at the surface water temperatures in the eastern pacific. Right now, those water temperatures are cooler than 'average', creating a pattern known as "La Nina".
Even though this year's "La Nina" is considered a weak to moderate one, it will impact the position of the jet stream (upper level steering winds in the atmosphere) As this graphic shows, a La Nina pattern will typically bring active weather to the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region, with dry and warm weather projected across the southern United States.
So how about this year? The Climate Prediction Center has issued its ninety day outlook for the season. This graphic shows the projection for the months of December, January and February. As you can see, the outlook for this year is for an overall colder than average pattern to grip the Northern Plains and Pacific northwest, with near or above average temperatures in the Great Lakes and Central U.S. Unseasonably warm air is likely up and down the East Coast and along the Southern United States.
In regards to precipitation, below average amounts are likely in the southern United States, while above average amounts are likely in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes.
For West Michigan, that could mean several of our winter storms will feature mixed precipitation types, leading to below average snow totals for the season.
So far, this season appears to be shaping up with many similarities to the 2016-17 season. In that season, we ended up getting just over 60-inches of snow; which is about a foot and a half below our average of 77-inches.
For snow lovers, this is not great news...especially after last year's meager 47.4", which was about two and a half feet less what we expect in a "normal" winter. The Winter season of 2023-24 was the warmest ever recorded in the 125-years of data on file at the National Weather Service office in Grand Rapids.
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