WEST MICHIGAN – It’s strictly a coincidence that this is Severe Weather Awareness week and our weather pattern will be quite a bit more active Monday through Thursday. In fact, several waves of rain will likely move across the state over the next few days. Mixed in…perhaps a few thunderstorms (best chance for that on Wednesday). Here’s what’s up.
A stationary frontal boundary will set up shop across southern lower Michigan Monday through mid-week. Waves of low pressure will ride along the front. As each low pressure system traverses the area, it will bring another slug of moisture with it. Our forecast models are showing a solid two to three inches (perhaps more) of rain across the area this week. That said, locations that are along or south of the front will get in to the warmer airmass with temps in the 60s, perhaps near 70 on Wednesday. Cities that stay north of the front will experience a cooler east to southeast wind and temps in the 50s. Make sure to stay up on later forecasts as the exact location of the front may change and affect high temps.
While severe weather is possible for us, the far better chance of strong damaging winds, large hail, and possible tornadoes will be outside of Michigan across the deep south. Take a look at the Storm Prediction Center Convective outlook for Day Two (Monday), Day Three (Tuesday), and beyond. I would expect some thunderstorms around here, but our severe threat is mitigated with extensive cloud cover expected. If we can break in to sunshine for part of an afternoon, it will destabilize the atmosphere and build energy for the storms. So to an extent, it’s a wait and see.
This is only one forecast model, but take a look here at the heavy rain that is expected across the area over the next five days. The bullseye in red and purple is clearly across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Mississippi Valley. A solid two to three inches are forecast. Right now the best chance for rain is late Monday morning through the afternoon, Tuesday afternoon and evening, and off/on Wednesday. A few lingering showers will cooler temps are likely through Thursday before high pressure, drier conditions, and sunshine builds in for Friday and Saturday.
Anyone interested in looking at the surface maps/analysis for the next few days can find them here at the Weather Prediction Center website.
Get the complete West Michigan forecast at www.fox17online.com/weather.