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Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow

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WEST MICHIGAN — As stated in a previous article, the ingredients are coming together for scattered shower and thunderstorm activity tomorrow. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) out of Norman, OK has issued a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow for portions of the southern Great Lakes region. This does includes portions of West Michigan, mainly from I-96 southward.

An area of low pressure in the Plains is currently pulling warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into neighboring states to our west. This warm, moist air will march eastward overnight into tomorrow, setting the stage for showers and thunderstorms. The activity will become more organized late tomorrow afternoon and evening as this low continues eastward and pulls a cold front into the area. This front will be the focus for thunderstorms that could contain wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph along with hail up to 1″ in diameter:

Future_Track

Future Track HD

The evening hours look to be the time frame we will have to watch most closely, but the severity of tomorrow’s storms will largely depend on how much sunshine we see during the afternoon. A sunnier afternoon will lead to a warmer layer of air a the surface, and a more buoyant, unstable atmosphere. Cloudier conditions would limit this buoyancy enough to keep thunderstorms below severe limits.

At this time, it looks like we’ll have more clouds than sunshine tomorrow which will keep the threat for severe weather down somewhat. There is a chance for an isolated storm or two to become severe, however, and we’ll continue to watch this situation closely over the next 24 to 36 hours. Be sure to keep it tuned to FOX 17 for updates!

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