Severe storms a possibility this evening

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WEST MICHIGAN — It will turn warmer and more humid this afternoon as high pressure slides to our east and we pick up a fairly strong southwesterly breeze. This warmer, more humid airmass could set the stage for some thunderstorms today. As of this early morning writing, we’re already tracking an area of rain with embedded thunderstorms in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa:

Radar_AM

The cloud cover associated with this area of rainfall will continue to spread into the FOX 17 viewing area this morning and early this afternoon. This will initially limit our chances for severe weather significantly, as cloud cover typically has a stabilizing influence on the atmosphere. Future Track HD suggests the leftovers from this complex of showers and storms won’t be all that significant as it moves across the area this afternoon:

Future_Track_1

Later this afternoon, we’ll have to see how much sunshine we get. If the sun breaks through enough, this could destabilize the atmosphere enough for a few severe thunderstorms this evening. Here’s how Future Track HD looks just after 10 PM:

Future_Track_2

The main threat with these storms will be heavy rainfall in excess of one inch in a brief period of time. The severe threats will mainly be wind gusts approaching 60 mph, with hail being a secondary threat:

Severe_Threats

A lingering shower is possible before 9 AM tomorrow, then we expect a weak cold front to bring drier air into the region for the afternoon. With more sunshine tomorrow, temperatures actually look a bit warmer behind that front. Night time temperatures will then drop to comfortable levels on Monday night, with Tuesday afternoon looking pretty comfortable as well. After that, we expect heat and humidity to build as we head through the rest of the week with only slight chances of storms on Thursday and Friday.

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