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April snowfall on the way

Posted at 10:19 AM, Apr 04, 2017
and last updated 2017-04-05 10:40:03-04

WEST MICHIGAN-  Snow in April isn't uncommon, as I mentioned the other day.  I remember it specifically because I was all amped up to watch the Masters and play golf and at this same time last year, we got about 6 inches of snow.

A low pressure center that will drag in cold air from the northeast will change our rain to snow overnight tonight, as illustrated above.  There are many uncertainties with this system so far.  The fact that it's going to snow isn't one of them.

The first question everyone automatically asks is "How much snow is going to fall?" That question is usually a little bit easier to answer than it is now.  Several factors deter an easy snowfall forecast in early April.  Our ground is already warming up.  This can be overcome, however, with heavy enough snowfall rates.  Another issue we'll run into is the fact that we'll struggle to get below freezing for a long period.  The biggest factor, in my opinion, will be the melting of snow as it falls.

Here are three forecast model outputs for snowfall totals at roughly the same time.  Meteorologists look at these raw numbers and determine how close they would be given the other atmospheric conditions at the time.  You can see, they're all over the place.  (A higher resolution European model, for the weather geeks out there, shows higher totals.)  One could look at these maps and say "My goodness, we could see a foot of snow Thursday!"  Now we come back to the "atmospheric conditions" I mentioned just above.  This setup happens in January?  Foot of snow, easily!  April?  A little bit more difficult.

While the same precipitation will fall, notice the projected model temperatures.  They're all above freezing!  This is the first limiting factor.  The second one I mentioned, and perhaps the most important one, will be the initial melting of the snow as it falls to the surface.  Sure, we can overcome that warm ground with a high enough snowfall rate (and I absolutely think we will,) but that doesn't take away from the fact that a lot of the snow that falls will melt initially and as the temperature changes throughout the day.

Expect most areas to see at least 1-3 inches of snowfall, mostly accumulating in the grassy surfaces (although untraveled side roads will pick up snow as well.)  There will be a higher accumulation area right in the middle of West Michigan as we're likely to see a northeasterly flow deliver several bands Thursday as well.  As I mentioned above, a lot of this will melt as the temperature changes, so these totals will probably change as the storm arrives.

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for parts of West Michigan.  This is where we're expecting the heaviest snowfall Thursday.The FOX 17 Weather App will keep you posted of any changes to this watch as the evening moves along.

One of the biggest impacts from this storm will be potential power outages.  The wet, heavy snowfall will weigh down tree branches and power lines creating issues as winds could gust in excess of 50 mph Thursday.  Visibilities will also drop to near 0 as this snow becomes heavy at times in the morning.